Sunk Cost sunkcost.ai Data checked 2026-09-03

Best buys: the quickest pay-back at each level of capability

For each amount of daily use, the machines and models that pay for themselves soonest, grouped by how capable the model is. Each model appears once, on its quickest machine.

The short version: at 1M tokens a day (a moderate coding-assistant day), the quickest Sonnet-class pay-back is Qwen3.8 27B on a Mac mini M6, 32GB, in 8.3 years.

Jump to: 50k/day · 200k/day · 1M/day · 4M/day · 20M/day

50k tokens a day · a few chats a day

ModelMachineSpeedPays back in
Sonnet-class · alongside Claude Sonnet 5, GPT-5.6 Luna / Terra
Qwen3.8 27Bscore 34 Mac mini M6, 32GB $1,299 7 tok/s estimated 166 years Open in the calculator
Qwen3.8 Flash Nextscore 40 Mac Studio M5 Ultra, 256GB $10,799 74 tok/s estimated 3,715 years Open in the calculator
GLM-5.3-Flashscore 42 Mac Studio M5 Ultra, 256GB $10,799 32 tok/s estimated 9,650 years Open in the calculator
Haiku-class · alongside Claude Haiku 4.5
Qwen3.6 27Bscore 22 Mac mini M6, 32GB $1,299 7 tok/s estimated 188 years Open in the calculator
Muse Glimmer 30Bscore 18 Mac mini M6, 32GB $1,299 7 tok/s estimated 220 years Open in the calculator
Qwen3.5 122B-A10Bscore 16 Strix Halo Framework Desktop, 128GB $3,449 20 tok/s estimated 533 years Open in the calculator
Below every hosted tier
Ministral 3 14Bscore 6 Mac mini M6, 24GB $1,099 9 tok/s estimated 335 years Open in the calculator
Ministral 3 8Bscore 5 Mac mini M6, 16GB $899 12 tok/s estimated 368 years Open in the calculator
Devstral 2 123Bscore 9 Strix Halo Framework Desktop, 128GB $3,449 2 tok/s estimated 585 years Open in the calculator
Also in this class: 48 never pay back, of 452 pairs that fit.

200k tokens a day · light assistant use

ModelMachineSpeedPays back in
Sonnet-class · alongside Claude Sonnet 5, GPT-5.6 Luna / Terra
Qwen3.8 27Bscore 34 Mac mini M6, 32GB $1,299 7 tok/s estimated 42 years Open in the calculator
Qwen3.8 Flash Nextscore 40 Mac Studio M5 Ultra, 256GB $10,799 74 tok/s estimated 929 years Open in the calculator
GLM-5.3-Flashscore 42 Mac Studio M5 Ultra, 256GB $10,799 32 tok/s estimated 2,413 years Open in the calculator
Haiku-class · alongside Claude Haiku 4.5
Qwen3.6 27Bscore 22 Mac mini M6, 32GB $1,299 7 tok/s estimated 47 years Open in the calculator
Muse Glimmer 30Bscore 18 Mac mini M6, 32GB $1,299 7 tok/s estimated 55 years Open in the calculator
Qwen3.5 122B-A10Bscore 16 Strix Halo Framework Desktop, 128GB $3,449 20 tok/s estimated 133 years Open in the calculator
Below every hosted tier
Ministral 3 14Bscore 6 Mac mini M6, 24GB $1,099 9 tok/s estimated 84 years Open in the calculator
Ministral 3 8Bscore 5 Mac mini M6, 16GB $899 12 tok/s estimated 92 years Open in the calculator
Devstral 2 123Bscore 9 Strix Halo Framework Desktop, 128GB $3,449 2 tok/s estimated 146 years Open in the calculator
Also in this class: 48 never pay back, of 452 pairs that fit.

1M tokens a day · a moderate coding-assistant day

ModelMachineSpeedPays back in
Sonnet-class · alongside Claude Sonnet 5, GPT-5.6 Luna / Terra
Qwen3.8 27Bscore 34 Mac mini M6, 32GB $1,299 7 tok/s estimated 8.3 years Open in the calculator
Qwen3.8 Flash Nextscore 40 Mac Studio M5 Ultra, 256GB $10,799 74 tok/s estimated 186 years Open in the calculator
GLM-5.3-Flashscore 42 Mac Studio M5 Ultra, 256GB $10,799 32 tok/s estimated 483 years Open in the calculator
Haiku-class · alongside Claude Haiku 4.5
Qwen3.6 27Bscore 22 Mac mini M6, 32GB $1,299 7 tok/s estimated 9.4 years Open in the calculator
Muse Glimmer 30Bscore 18 Mac mini M6, 32GB $1,299 7 tok/s estimated 11 years Open in the calculator
Qwen3.5 122B-A10Bscore 16 Strix Halo Framework Desktop, 128GB $3,449 20 tok/s estimated 27 years Open in the calculator
Below every hosted tier
Ministral 3 14Bscore 6 Mac mini M6, 24GB $1,099 9 tok/s estimated 17 years Open in the calculator
Ministral 3 8Bscore 5 Mac mini M6, 16GB $899 12 tok/s estimated 18 years Open in the calculator
Devstral 2 123Bscore 9 Strix Halo Framework Desktop, 128GB $3,449 2 tok/s estimated 29 years Open in the calculator
Also in this class: 48 never pay back, of 452 pairs that fit.

4M tokens a day · heavy coding with an agent

ModelMachineSpeedPays back in
Sonnet-class · alongside Claude Sonnet 5, GPT-5.6 Luna / Terra
Qwen3.8 27Bscore 34 Mac mini M6, 32GB $1,299 7 tok/s estimated 2.1 years Open in the calculator
Qwen3.8 Flash Nextscore 40 Mac Studio M5 Ultra, 256GB $10,799 74 tok/s estimated 46 years Open in the calculator
GLM-5.3-Flashscore 42 Mac Studio M5 Ultra, 256GB $10,799 32 tok/s estimated 121 years Open in the calculator
Haiku-class · alongside Claude Haiku 4.5
Qwen3.6 27Bscore 22 Mac mini M6, 32GB $1,299 7 tok/s estimated 2.4 years Open in the calculator
Muse Glimmer 30Bscore 18 Mac mini M6, 32GB $1,299 7 tok/s estimated 2.8 years Open in the calculator
Qwen3.5 122B-A10Bscore 16 Strix Halo Framework Desktop, 128GB $3,449 20 tok/s estimated 6.7 years Open in the calculator
Below every hosted tier
Ministral 3 14Bscore 6 Mac mini M6, 24GB $1,099 9 tok/s estimated 4.2 years Open in the calculator
Ministral 3 8Bscore 5 Mac mini M6, 16GB $899 12 tok/s estimated 4.6 years Open in the calculator
Devstral 2 123Bscore 9 Mac Studio M5 Max, 128GB $5,099 5 tok/s estimated 8.3 years Open in the calculator
Also in this class: 48 never pay back; 7 can’t produce this much in a day, of 452 pairs that fit.

20M tokens a day · agents running most of the day

ModelMachineSpeedPays back in
Sonnet-class · alongside Claude Sonnet 5, GPT-5.6 Luna / Terra
Qwen3.8 27Bscore 34 Mac Studio M5 Max, 36GB $2,499 19 tok/s estimated 9.5 months Open in the calculator
Qwen3.8 Flash Nextscore 40 Mac Studio M5 Ultra, 256GB $10,799 74 tok/s estimated 9.3 years Open in the calculator
GLM-5.3-Flashscore 42 Mac Studio M5 Ultra, 256GB $10,799 32 tok/s estimated 24 years Open in the calculator
Also in this class: 16 can’t produce this much in a day, of 28 pairs that fit.
Haiku-class · alongside Claude Haiku 4.5
Qwen3.6 27Bscore 22 Mac Studio M5 Max, 36GB $2,499 18 tok/s estimated 11 months Open in the calculator
Muse Glimmer 30Bscore 18 Mac Studio M5 Max, 36GB $2,499 19 tok/s estimated 13 months Open in the calculator
Qwen3.5 122B-A10Bscore 16 Strix Halo Framework Desktop, 128GB $3,449 20 tok/s estimated 16 months Open in the calculator
Also in this class: 63 can’t produce this much in a day, of 189 pairs that fit.
Below every hosted tier
Ministral 3 14Bscore 6 Mac mini M5 Pro, 24GB $1,699 17 tok/s estimated 16 months Open in the calculator
Ministral 3 8Bscore 5 Strix Halo Framework Desktop, 32GB $1,269 20 tok/s estimated 16 months Open in the calculator
Qwen3.5 9Bscore 14* Mac mini M6, 16GB $899 17 tok/s estimated 21 months Open in the calculator
Also in this class: 32 never pay back; 58 can’t produce this much in a day, of 452 pairs that fit.

Current machines at list price and current models only. Every row uses 15:1 input to output, $0.17 per kWh, 32k of context, and today's API prices held flat; switch on falling API prices in the calculator and the years stretch. Speeds marked estimated are worked out from memory bandwidth rather than measured, and pay-back scales with them. Models nobody rents are priced as their closest hosted match and say so. Scores are the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3; * marks a score the index estimated. Open any row to change the assumptions.