Sunk Cost sunkcost.ai Data checked 2026-09-03

MacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 48GB vs Strix Halo GMKtec EVO-X3, 128GB for local AI

The GMKtec EVO-X3, 128GB holds 33 of the 39 open models here, and the MacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 48GB holds 27. The MacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 48GB costs $1 less. On Qwen3.8 27B, the strongest model both hold, the MacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 48GB is about 1.2× faster: 12 tok/s against 10, both estimated from memory bandwidth. The MacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 48GB pays for itself sooner, in 47 years against 48 years at 500k tokens a day.

MacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 48GBStrix Halo GMKtec EVO-X3, 128GB
Price$3,599$3,600
Memory48 GB128 GB
Usable by the GPU36 GB96 GB
Memory bandwidth307 GB/s256 GB/s
Power under load140 Wstand-in150 W
Models that fit2733
Best model it runsQwen3.8 27BQwen3.8 27B
Speed on that model12 tok/s estimated10 tok/s estimated
Pay-back on that modelPays back in 47 yearsPays back in 48 years

The 140 W beside the MacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 48GB is a stand-in, not a figure for that machine: the data borrows it from the nearest hardware it does have, and the machine's own page names which and why. So the two figures above are not like for like, and the electricity in its pay-back here is priced from a borrowed number.

Run the numbers on the MacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 48GB · or the Strix Halo GMKtec EVO-X3, 128GB

The same money, two different machines

These two cost within $1 of each other: $3,599 for the MacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 48GB and $3,600 for the GMKtec EVO-X3, 128GB. Apple makes one and GMKtec the other. Every other head-to-head on this site holds a piece of the hardware equal and asks what the price gap buys. This one holds the price, so the row that usually carries the answer is the row the two machines agree on, and everything under it is what the same money buys twice.

How much use it takes to pay back

Everything above is at 500k tokens a day. Pay-back moves with how much you actually run, so here are both machines on Qwen3.8 27B, the strongest model both hold, at the five levels of use the calculator names. The MacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 48GB pays back sooner at every level of use, so this is not a choice that turns on how hard you work it.

A day's useMacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 48GBStrix Halo GMKtec EVO-X3, 128GB
50ka few chats a day466 years477 years
200klight assistant use117 years119 years
1Ma moderate coding-assistant day23 years24 years
4Mheavy coding with an agent5.8 years6.0 years
20Magents running most of the day16 monthsits ceiling20 monthsits ceiling

On Qwen3.8 27B neither machine can generate 20M tokens a day: the MacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 48GB manages at most 17.1M and the Strix Halo GMKtec EVO-X3, 128GB at most 14.3M. Both figures on that row are for the most each can do.

Run the MacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 48GB at 20M tokens a day · or the Strix Halo GMKtec EVO-X3, 128GB

What the extra memory buys

The Strix Halo GMKtec EVO-X3, 128GB holds 6 models the MacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 48GB cannot at 32k of context. The strongest of them are what the difference in memory actually buys.

ModelWeightsNeeds at 32kOn the Strix Halo GMKtec EVO-X3, 128GB
Ling 3.0 flashHaiku-class78 GB82 GB20 tok/s estimated
Qwen3.5 122B-A10BHaiku-class78 GB79 GB20 tok/s estimated
gpt-oss-120bBelow every hosted tier63 GB65 GB35 tok/s estimated
Mistral Small 4 (119B-2603)Below every hosted tier74 GB75 GB32 tok/s estimated
Qwen3-Coder NextBelow every hosted tier48 GB49 GB54 tok/s estimated
Devstral 2 123BBelow every hosted tier75 GB87 GB2.2 tok/s estimated

The extra memory buys context as well. Of the 27 models both machines hold at 32k, 6 run to a longer window on the Strix Halo GMKtec EVO-X3, 128GB: the weights are a fixed size and the KV cache is not, so what the weights leave spare is what a longer context grows into. Gemma 4 31B it reaches 256k there against 64k on the MacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 48GB, each the longest window the calculator offers that the machine still holds it at.

The MacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 48GB is also head to head with another computer: Minisforum MS-S1 Max, 128GB. With the same machine at another memory size: 24GB · 64GB.

The GMKtec EVO-X3, 128GB is also head to head with another computer: Framework Desktop, 128GB.

The assumptions behind both columns

Both columns use the same usage: 500k tokens a day at 15:1 input to output, 32k of context, $0.17 per kWh, and today's API prices held flat. Speeds marked estimated are worked out from memory bandwidth rather than measured, and pay-back scales with them. Change any of it in the calculator.

More head to head: everything the MacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 48GB runs · everything the Strix Halo GMKtec EVO-X3, 128GB runs · every other match-up · the quickest pay-back at each level of use · every model against the frontier