Sunk Cost sunkcost.ai Data checked 2026-09-03

MacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch): 48GB vs 64GB for local AI

Both hold 27 of the 39 open models here. The MacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 48GB costs $400 less. On Qwen3.8 27B, the strongest model both hold, they run at much the same speed: 25 and 25 tok/s, both estimated from memory bandwidth. The MacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 48GB pays for itself sooner, in 62 years against 67 years at 500k tokens a day.

MacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 48GBMacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 64GB
Price$4,999$5,399
Memory48 GB64 GB
Usable by the GPU36 GB48 GB
Memory bandwidth614 GB/s614 GB/s
Power under load145 Wstand-in145 Wstand-in
Models that fit2727
Best model it runsQwen3.8 27BQwen3.8 27B
Speed on that model25 tok/s estimated25 tok/s estimated
Pay-back on that modelPays back in 62 yearsPays back in 67 years

Neither power figure above is measured on the machine beside it. Both are stand-ins borrowed from the nearest hardware the data does have, so what the row shows is one borrowed figure printed twice. Each machine's page names the figure it borrows and why. Every pay-back figure on this page prices its electricity from these numbers.

Run the numbers on the MacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 48GB · or the MacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 64GB

How much use it takes to pay back

Everything above is at 500k tokens a day. Pay-back moves with how much you actually run, so here are both machines on Qwen3.8 27B, the strongest model both hold, at the five levels of use the calculator names. The MacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 48GB pays back sooner at every level of use, so this is not a choice that turns on how hard you work it.

A day's useMacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 48GBMacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 64GB
50ka few chats a day624 years673 years
200klight assistant use156 years168 years
1Ma moderate coding-assistant day31 years34 years
4Mheavy coding with an agent7.8 years8.4 years
20Magents running most of the day19 months20 months

Run the MacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 48GB at 20M tokens a day · or the MacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 64GB

The same models, not to the same length

Every model on this list that fits one machine fits the other at 32k of context, so memory does not change what they run. What it changes is how far you can take the context on 3 of them. The MacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 64GB has 48 GB usable against 36 GB, and spare memory is what the KV cache grows into as you keep more tokens.

ModelMacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 48GBMacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 64GB
Gemma 4 31B it20 GB of weights64k128k
Qwen3-Coder 30B-A3B19 GB of weights128k256k
Ministral 3 8B5.2 GB of weights128k256k

Each figure is the longest context the calculator offers that the machine still holds that model at, and no model is taken past its own context limit. The other 36 models the calculator counts reach the same length on both machines, at every setting from 4k to 256k.

Run Gemma 4 31B it on the MacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 48GB at 64k · or on the MacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 64GB at 128k

The assumptions behind both columns

Both columns use the same usage: 500k tokens a day at 15:1 input to output, 32k of context, $0.17 per kWh, and today's API prices held flat. Speeds marked estimated are worked out from memory bandwidth rather than measured, and pay-back scales with them. Graphics cards are priced as the card alone, so add the PC around one before comparing it with a complete computer. Change any of it in the calculator.

More head to head: everything the MacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 48GB runs · everything the MacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 64GB runs · every other match-up · the quickest pay-back at each level of use · every model against the frontier