Sunk Cost sunkcost.ai Data checked 2026-09-03

Mac mini M6: 16GB vs 32GB for local AI

The Mac mini M6, 32GB holds 23 of the 50 current models here, and the Mac mini M6, 16GB holds 13. The Mac mini M6, 16GB costs $400 less. On Gemma 4 12B, the strongest model both hold, the Mac mini M6, 32GB is about 1.1× faster: 16 tok/s against 14, both estimated from memory bandwidth. The Mac mini M6, 16GB pays for itself sooner, in 71 years against 82 years at 500k tokens a day, though that is each machine on its own strongest model rather than on the same one.

Mac mini M6, 16GBMac mini M6, 32GB
Price$899$1,299
Memory16 GB32 GB
Usable by the GPU10.5 GB21 GB
Memory bandwidth153 GB/s170 GB/s
Power under load65 Wstand-in65 Wstand-in
Models that fit1323
Best model it runsGemma 4 12BQwen3.8 27B
Speed on that model14 tok/s estimatedGemma 4 12B6.9 tok/s estimatedQwen3.8 27B
Pay-back on that modelPays back in 71 yearsPays back in 82 years

Neither power figure above is measured on the machine beside it. Both are stand-ins borrowed from the nearest hardware the data does have, so what the row shows is one borrowed figure printed twice. Each machine's page names the figure it borrows and why. Every pay-back figure on this page prices its electricity from these numbers.

Run the numbers on the Mac mini M6, 16GB · or the Mac mini M6, 32GB

Jump to: Side by side on Gemma 4 12B · How much use it takes to pay back · What the extra memory buys · The assumptions behind both columns

Side by side on Gemma 4 12B

The table above gives each machine the strongest model it can hold, and those are not the same model, so the two speeds in it are not a race. Gemma 4 12B is the strongest model both machines hold, so this is the pair running the same work.

Mac mini M6, 16GBMac mini M6, 32GB
Speed14 tok/s estimated16 tok/s estimated
Pay-backPays back in 71 yearsPays back in 100 years

Run Gemma 4 12B on the Mac mini M6, 16GB · or on the Mac mini M6, 32GB

How much use it takes to pay back

Everything above is at 500k tokens a day. Pay-back moves with how much you actually run, so here are both machines on the same model, at the five levels of use the calculator names. The Mac mini M6, 16GB pays back sooner at every level of use, so this is not a choice that turns on how hard you work it.

A day's useMac mini M6, 16GBMac mini M6, 32GB
50ka few chats a day706 years1,000 years
200klight assistant use176 years250 years
1Ma moderate coding-assistant day35 years50 years
4Mheavy coding with an agent8.8 years13 years
20Magents running most of the day21 monthsits ceiling2.5 years

On Gemma 4 12B the Mac mini M6, 16GB generates at most 19.8M tokens a day, so its figure at 20M tokens a day is for the most it can do, not for the whole of what was asked.

Run the Mac mini M6, 16GB at 20M tokens a day · or the Mac mini M6, 32GB

What the extra memory buys

The Mac mini M6, 32GB holds 10 models the Mac mini M6, 16GB cannot at 32k of context. The strongest of them are what the difference in memory actually buys.

ModelWeightsNeeds at 32kOn the Mac mini M6, 32GB
Qwen3.8 27BSonnet-class16 GB19 GB6.9 tok/s estimated
Qwen3.6 27BHaiku-class17 GB19 GB6.7 tok/s estimated
Muse Glimmer 30BHaiku-class17 GB18 GB7.2 tok/s estimated
Gemma 4 26B-A4BHaiku-class17 GB18 GB15 tok/s estimated
GLM-4.7-FlashHaiku-class18 GB20 GB14 tok/s estimated
Granite 4.2 8BBelow every hosted tier5.3 GB11 GB12 tok/s estimated

4 more, on the Mac mini M6, 32GB page.

The extra memory buys context as well. Of the 13 current models both machines hold at 32k, 7 run to a longer window on the Mac mini M6, 32GB: the weights are a fixed size and the KV cache is not, so what the weights leave spare is what a longer context grows into. Gemma 4 12B reaches 256k there against 128k on the Mac mini M6, 16GB, each the longest window the calculator offers that the machine still holds it at.

The Mac mini M6, 16GB is also head to head with the same machine at another memory size: 24GB. With the machine it replaced: Mac mini M4, 16GB.

The Mac mini M6, 32GB is also head to head with another computer: MacBook Air M5 (13-inch), 16GB · Framework Desktop, 32GB. With a graphics card: Radeon AI PRO R9700, 32GB. With the same machine at another memory size: 24GB. With the machine it replaced: Mac mini M4, 32GB.

Both sizes have a page of their own, with every machine here sold at that size, the models that fit it and what one step of memory buys: what 16 GB runs · what 32 GB runs.

The assumptions behind both columns

Both columns use the same usage: 500k tokens a day at 15:1 input to output, 32k of context, $0.17 per kWh, and today's API prices held flat. Speeds marked estimated are worked out from memory bandwidth rather than measured, and pay-back scales with them. Change any of it in the calculator.

More head to head: everything the Mac mini M6, 16GB runs · everything the Mac mini M6, 32GB runs · every other match-up · the quickest pay-back at each level of use · every model against the frontier