Sunk Cost sunkcost.ai Data checked 2026-09-03

Mac Studio M5 Max, 128GB vs MacBook Air M5 (15-inch), 16GB for local AI

The Mac Studio M5 Max, 128GB holds 39 of the 48 current models here, and the MacBook Air M5 (15-inch), 16GB holds 12. The MacBook Air M5 (15-inch), 16GB costs $3,600 less. On Gemma 4 12B, the strongest model both hold, the Mac Studio M5 Max, 128GB is about 4.1× faster: 58 tok/s against 14, both estimated from memory bandwidth. The MacBook Air M5 (15-inch), 16GB pays for itself sooner, in 118 years against 287 years at 500k tokens a day, though that is each machine on its own strongest model rather than on the same one.

Mac Studio M5 Max, 128GBMacBook Air M5 (15-inch), 16GB
Price$5,099$1,499
Memory128 GB16 GB
Usable by the GPU96 GB10.5 GB
Memory bandwidth614 GB/s153 GB/s
Power under load145 Wstand-in65 Wstand-in
Models that fit3912
Best model it runsQwen3.8 27BGemma 4 12B
Speed on that model25 tok/s estimatedQwen3.8 27B14 tok/s estimatedGemma 4 12B
Pay-back on that modelPays back in 287 yearsPays back in 118 years

Neither power figure above is measured on the machine beside it. Both are stand-ins borrowed from the nearest hardware the data does have, so the gap between them is not a difference between these two machines. Each machine's page names the figure it borrows and why. Every pay-back figure on this page prices its electricity from these numbers.

Run the numbers on the Mac Studio M5 Max, 128GB · or the MacBook Air M5 (15-inch), 16GB

Jump to: Side by side on Gemma 4 12B · How much use it takes to pay back · What the extra memory buys · The assumptions behind both columns

Side by side on Gemma 4 12B

The table above gives each machine the strongest model it can hold, and those are not the same model, so the two speeds in it are not a race. Gemma 4 12B is the strongest model both machines hold, so this is the pair running the same work.

Mac Studio M5 Max, 128GBMacBook Air M5 (15-inch), 16GB
Speed58 tok/s estimated14 tok/s estimated
Pay-backPays back in 369 yearsPays back in 118 years

Run Gemma 4 12B on the Mac Studio M5 Max, 128GB · or on the MacBook Air M5 (15-inch), 16GB

How much use it takes to pay back

Everything above is at 500k tokens a day. Pay-back moves with how much you actually run, so here are both machines on the same model, at the five levels of use the calculator names. The MacBook Air M5 (15-inch), 16GB pays back sooner at every level of use, so this is not a choice that turns on how hard you work it.

A day's useMac Studio M5 Max, 128GBMacBook Air M5 (15-inch), 16GB
50ka few chats a day3,688 years1,177 years
200klight assistant use922 years294 years
1Ma moderate coding-assistant day184 years59 years
4Mheavy coding with an agent46 years15 years
20Magents running most of the day9.2 years3.0 yearsits ceiling

On Gemma 4 12B the MacBook Air M5 (15-inch), 16GB generates at most 19.8M tokens a day, so its figure at 20M tokens a day is for the most it can do, not for the whole of what was asked.

Run the Mac Studio M5 Max, 128GB at 20M tokens a day · or the MacBook Air M5 (15-inch), 16GB

What the extra memory buys

The Mac Studio M5 Max, 128GB holds 27 models the MacBook Air M5 (15-inch), 16GB cannot at 32k of context. The strongest of them are what the difference in memory actually buys.

ModelWeightsNeeds at 32kOn the Mac Studio M5 Max, 128GB
Qwen3.8 27BSonnet-class16 GB19 GB25 tok/s estimated
Ling 3.0 flashHaiku-class78 GB78 GB53 tok/s estimated
Qwen3.6 27BHaiku-class17 GB19 GB24 tok/s estimated
Nemotron 3.5 Bolt 74B-A9BHaiku-class22 GB22 GB63 tok/s estimated
Qwen3.6 35B-A3BHaiku-class22 GB23 GB73 tok/s estimated
Muse Glimmer 30BHaiku-class17 GB18 GB26 tok/s estimated

21 more, on the Mac Studio M5 Max, 128GB page.

The extra memory buys context as well. Of the 12 current models both machines hold at 32k, 7 run to a longer window on the Mac Studio M5 Max, 128GB: the weights are a fixed size and the KV cache is not, so what the weights leave spare is what a longer context grows into. Ministral 3 8B reaches 256k there against 32k on the MacBook Air M5 (15-inch), 16GB, each the longest window the calculator offers that the machine still holds it at.

The Mac Studio M5 Max, 128GB is also head to head with another computer: Mac mini M5 Pro, 24GB · DGX Spark, 128GB · GMKtec EVO-X2, 128GB · MacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 64GB · MacBook Pro M5 Max (16-inch), 48GB. With a graphics card: RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell, 96GB · Radeon AI PRO R9700, 32GB. With the same machine at another memory size: 48GB · 64GB. With the machine it replaced: Mac Studio M4 Max, 128GB.

The MacBook Air M5 (15-inch), 16GB is also head to head with another computer: Mac mini M5 Pro, 24GB · DGX Spark, 128GB · GMKtec EVO-X2, 128GB · MacBook Pro M5 Pro (16-inch), 64GB · MacBook Air M5 (13-inch), 16GB. With a graphics card: RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell, 96GB · Radeon AI PRO R9700, 32GB.

The assumptions behind both columns

Both columns use the same usage: 500k tokens a day at 15:1 input to output, 32k of context, $0.17 per kWh, and today's API prices held flat. Speeds marked estimated are worked out from memory bandwidth rather than measured, and pay-back scales with them. Change any of it in the calculator.

More head to head: everything the Mac Studio M5 Max, 128GB runs · everything the MacBook Air M5 (15-inch), 16GB runs · every other match-up · the quickest pay-back at each level of use · every model against the frontier