Sunk Cost sunkcost.ai Data checked 2026-09-03

Can a Mac mini M5 Pro, 48GB run local LLMs?

Yes — 32 of the 48 current models on this site fit in its 36 GB of usable memory. The strongest it holds, Qwen3.8 27B, runs at 12 tok/s with a 32k window, worked out from memory bandwidth. Whether that saves you money is a different question: at $2,299 and 500k tokens a day, it pays back in 155 years.

Price$2,299
Memory48 GB, about 36 GB of it addressable by the GPU at 307 GB/s
Best model it runsQwen3.8 27B — Sonnet-class, 12 tok/s estimated
Pay-back against the APIPays back in 155 years at 500k tokens a day

Run the numbers on this machine

What the Mac mini M5 Pro, 48GB runs

They do not all hold the same window. The weights are a fixed size, but the key-value cache grows with every token you keep, so what is left of 36 GB after the weights is how far the context goes. On 2 of the 12 below, this machine's memory is what runs out first: Granite 4.2 30B stops soonest, at 64k. The rest reach 256k, where the calculator's list ends, or the longest setting their own context limit allows.

ModelSpeedClassMemoryLongest context
Qwen3.8 27BQ4_K_M 12 tok/s estimated Sonnet-class 19 GB 256k
Qwen3.6 27BQ4_K_M 12 tok/s estimated Haiku-class 19 GB 256k
Nemotron 3.5 Bolt 74B-A9BIQ2 32 tok/s estimated Haiku-class 22 GB 256k
Qwen3.6 35B-A3BQ4_K_M 37 tok/s estimated Haiku-class 23 GB 256k
Muse Glimmer 30BQ4_K_M 13 tok/s estimated Haiku-class 18 GB 128k
Gemma 4 26B-A4BQ4_K_M 27 tok/s estimated Haiku-class 18 GB 256k
Gemma 4 31B itQ4_K_M 10 tok/s estimated Haiku-class 23 GB 128kmemory
Granite 4.2 30BQ4_K_M 8.8 tok/s estimated Haiku-class 26 GB 64kmemory
GLM-4.7-FlashQ4_K_M 26 tok/s estimated Haiku-class 20 GB 128k
Gemma 4 12BQ4_K_M 29 tok/s estimated Below every hosted tier 8.0 GB 256k
Qwen3.5 9BQ4_K_M 34 tok/s estimated Below every hosted tier 6.8 GB 256k
Nemotron 3.5 Lightning 30B-A3BQ4_K_M 35 tok/s estimated Below every hosted tier 26 GB 256k

Speed and memory are at 32k context, the setting the calculator starts on; the memory column is the weights plus the cache for that much of it. Each speed says how it was arrived at, and every one here is estimated from this machine's 307 GB/s of memory bandwidth rather than taken from a published benchmark. There is a page on how that sum works, and what each size needs, and one on what 48 GB runs, machine by machine. The longest context is the longest setting the calculator offers that this machine still holds the model at, cache included, and each one opens the calculator on that model at that length. A figure tagged memory is one this machine ran out of room for, and the rest are stopped by the model's own limit or by the end of the list.

For scale, the calculator starts from 80 tok/s for a hosted API and times a local machine against it. Nothing above reaches it, and the quickest is 37 tok/s.

20 more fit. Ranked below the twelve above: MiniCPM5 2B, Qwen3.5 4B, Ling 3.0 tiny, Granite 4.2 8B, Qwen3-Coder 30B-A3B, gpt-oss-20b, Gemma 4 E4B, LFM2.5 2.6B, Devstral Small 2 24B, Ministral 3 14B, Ministral 3 8B. The other 9 have no intelligence-index score, so the ranking cannot place them: Laguna XS 2.1, LFM3 1.7B, Ornith 1.5 9B, Ornith 1.5 35B-A3B, Spark-X2.5 4B, Spark-X2.6 4B, KAT-Coder V2.5 Dev 35B-A3B, LFM2.5 24B-A2B, Flint 40B-A2.5B. Their pages show what each one needs and what runs it.

The 48 counted above are the current models. This site prices 16 superseded ones as well, because people still run them, and this machine holds ten of those at 32k, strongest first: Qwen3 30B-A3B Instruct 2507, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-32B, Llama 3.1 8B Instruct at Q4_K_M, Llama 3.1 8B Instruct at Q8_0, Mistral Small 3.2 24B Instruct, Qwen3 32B at Q4_K_M, Qwen3 14B, Qwen3 8B, Gemma 3 27B it, Gemma 3 12B it. Each of those pages asks whether the model is still worth running.

Other machines to weigh against the Mac mini M5 Pro, 48GB

MachinePriceMemoryModels that fitPay-back
The rest of the Mac mini range
Mac mini M6, 16GB $899 16 GB 12 Pays back in 71 years
Mac mini M6, 24GB $1,099 24 GB 16 Pays back in 85 years
Mac mini M6, 32GB $1,299 32 GB 22 Pays back in 82 years
Mac mini M5 Pro, 24GB $1,699 24 GB 16 Pays back in 135 years
Mac mini M5 Pro, 64GB $2,699 64 GB 32 Pays back in 182 years
Mac mini M4, 16GBdiscontinued $599 16 GB 12 Pays back in 50 years
Mac mini M4, 24GBdiscontinued $799 24 GB 16 Pays back in 66 years
Mac mini M4, 32GBdiscontinued $999 32 GB 22 Pays back in 73 years
Mac mini M4 Pro, 24GBdiscontinued $1,399 24 GB 16 Pays back in 114 years
Mac mini M4 Pro, 48GBdiscontinued $1,799 48 GB 32 Pays back in 128 years
Mac mini M4 Pro, 64GBdiscontinued $1,999 64 GB 32 Pays back in 142 years
Nearest in price elsewhere on the list
MacBook Air M5 (15-inch), 16GB $1,499 16 GB 12 Pays back in 118 years
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 5090, 32GB $1,999card only 32 GB 32 Pays back in 123 years
Strix Halo GMKtec EVO-X2, 64GB $2,200 64 GB 32 Pays back in 168 years
MacBook Pro M5 (14-inch), 32GB $2,399 32 GB 22 Pays back in 157 years
Mac Studio M5 Max, 36GB $2,499 36 GB 32 Pays back in 149 years

Every row uses the same defaults as the figures above: 500k tokens a day at 15:1 input to output, 32k context, and each machine's strongest model that fits, counted against the same 48 current models. The GeForce RTX 5090, 32GB is priced as the card alone, so add the PC around it before comparing it with a complete computer. All seven cards here are ranked by what each one holds.

Head to head with another computer: GMKtec EVO-X2, 64GB · MacBook Pro M5 (14-inch), 32GB. With the same machine at another memory size: 24GB · 64GB. With the machine it replaced: Mac mini M4 Pro, 48GB. There are 111 machine match-ups on the site.

The specifics

Chip
M5 Pro — 15-core CPU / 16-core GPU
Memory bandwidth
307 GB/s
Usable by the GPU
36 GB — macOS lets the GPU wire roughly 75% of unified memory by default (llama.cpp discussion #2182: 66.7% at 32 GiB or less, 75% above). Raise it with `sudo sysctl iogpu.wired_limit_mb`. Memory is treated as GB throughout, which is slightly conservative.
Power under load
140 W (stand-in) — Apple has not published power figures for the 2026 machines yet (support articles 103253 / 102027 stop at the 2024/2025 models). Stand-in: Apple's published maximum for the previous chip (M4 Pro Mac mini, 140 W), which is a CPU+GPU stress figure, so it likely overstates inference draw.
Availability
Pre-order; ships 2026-09-22.
Sources
Apple (specs), Apple (newsroom), Daring Fireball